Trading lab

every number sits next to a random-entry control · 17:18:06
minds saved
423
model + score history on disk
best edge
+5.056
beyond random, future data
best AUC
0.567
direction hit-rate, 0.5 = coin flip
formations learned
31,024,531
candle windows mined so far
formations drawn
28
pictures for your eyes
agent logs
55
transcripts on disk

The debate — lead vs skeptic vs builder

lead
w1-0107 is the strongest credible money lead: 218 trades, +0.4829R versus +0.0787R random, +0.4042R edge. Better evidence than the flashy one-trade winners; still needs unseen-coin proof.
2026-10-26 14:58
builder
Stay near w1-0107: test its 30m, window 4, horizon 12 setup at q=.55/.60/.65. It already has 218 trades and positive control-adjusted R; threshold variants can test whether selectivity improves returns without trusting tiny samples.
2026-10-26 14:58
skeptic
The 15m w2-0027 claim is the likeliest overfit: 2 trades produce +4.0508R against -0.9703R random. A five-R edge from two outcomes is not evidence of repeatable money.
2026-10-26 14:58
lead
Closest broad result is w2-0037: 420 trades, +0.489R versus control -0.126R, edge +0.616R. But 37.1% wins and AUC 0.4854 mean this is a money candidate, not a proven rule; future unseen-coins check decides.
2026-10-26 16:59
builder
Next isolate w2-0037’s 30m, w=4, long setup: test nearby horizons and q levels on untouched future periods and unseen coins, with same-trade random controls. Its 420 trades and +0.616R edge offer the best realistic starting point.
2026-10-26 16:59
skeptic
The loudest overfit is w3-0138: +0.348 edge on just 744 trades after trying many geometries; its future AUC is 0.488. Geometry selection plus tiny sample can manufacture the apparent win.
2026-10-26 16:59

Learned minds — the saved models

mindtf / window / horizonAUC futuretradeswinrule Rrandom REDGErounds
w2-011130m / 4 / 240.4881100%3.936-1.120+5.056—
w2-002715m / 12 / 80.5142100%4.051-0.970+5.021—
w3-005430m / 12 / 240.4901100%3.973-0.655+4.628—
w3-00961h / 16 / 480.5111100%2.383-1.075+3.458—
w3-011030m / 8 / 120.5091100%1.974-1.092+3.066—
w2-00481h / 16 / 480.5111100%2.383-0.432+2.816—
w1-004930m / 8 / 80.5091100%1.917-0.493+2.410—
w3-012730m / 8 / 120.5091100%1.9740.361+1.613—
w2-00121h / 12 / 240.5152100%0.650-0.406+1.056—
w2-00361h / 12 / 120.514450%0.476-0.493+0.969—
w1-01171h / 16 / 120.516250%0.327-0.453+0.779—
w3-01401h / 12 / 240.5152100%0.650-0.118+0.768—
w2-006430m / 8 / 240.4921533%0.335-0.340+0.675—
w1-004830m / 8 / 240.4921547%0.371-0.277+0.648—
w2-003730m / 4 / 240.48542037%0.489-0.126+0.616—
w2-00321h / 8 / 120.511956%0.281-0.315+0.595—
w1-002215m / 12 / 40.51951038%0.428-0.135+0.563—
w2-00721h / 12 / 120.514450%0.476-0.086+0.561—
w2-006015m / 8 / 120.51026240%0.465-0.081+0.547—
out_long_14h / 6 / 480.531——————
w1-005415m / 3 / 120.51177437%0.430-0.096+0.526—
out_short_14h / 6 / 480.525——————
w3-007730m / 12 / 120.51160641%0.448-0.074+0.522—
out_short_24h / 6 / 480.518——————
out_short_34h / 6 / 480.518——————
out_long_24h / 6 / 480.518——————
out_long_34h / 6 / 480.518——————
w2-013115m / 12 / 120.512——————
w3-006615m / 8 / 120.51026240%0.465-0.044+0.509—
w3-01411h / 5 / 120.508——————
w2-00161h / 6 / 240.5155034%0.199-0.303+0.501—
w3-00461h / 12 / 480.512875%0.7240.270+0.454—
w1-002615m / 12 / 40.5198532%0.213-0.239+0.453—
w2-010830m / 4 / 120.50521861%0.4830.038+0.445—
w2-002930m / 8 / 240.48721635%0.393-0.045+0.438—
w2-002030m / 4 / 240.48883234%0.304-0.129+0.432—
w1-002430m / 4 / 240.48883234%0.304-0.123+0.427—
w3-001415m / 8 / 80.5166146%0.274-0.152+0.425—
w3-009130m / 4 / 240.48883234%0.304-0.115+0.419—
w2-005030m / 8 / 80.50951446%0.278-0.130+0.408—
w1-010730m / 4 / 120.50521861%0.4830.079+0.404—
w1-004315m / 6 / 40.52291033%0.219-0.153+0.373—
w3-000615m / 4 / 40.522743%0.131-0.235+0.366—
w1-00034h / 6 / 480.505162326%0.3790.013+0.365—
w1-008830m / 12 / 240.48874432%0.233-0.126+0.359—
w3-013830m / 12 / 240.48874432%0.233-0.116+0.348—
w3-01094h / 6 / 960.555128137%0.304-0.039+0.344—
w2-012815m / 4 / 120.510139331%0.237-0.106+0.343—
w2-01264h / 6 / 960.56612558%0.240-0.096+0.336—
w2-005915m / 4 / 120.510139331%0.237-0.096+0.334—
w1-00611h / 8 / 480.5122442%0.192-0.131+0.323—
w1-00304h / 6 / 480.50827655%0.239-0.083+0.322—
w3-00234h / 12 / 480.5144173%0.247-0.073+0.320—
w3-00474h / 6 / 480.50827655%0.239-0.074+0.313—
w3-00124h / 8 / 960.55445135%0.274-0.037+0.311—
w2-01194h / 6 / 960.566702822%0.236-0.072+0.308—
w1-00054h / 6 / 120.516304022%0.215-0.092+0.306—
w3-00024h / 8 / 960.566556322%0.227-0.079+0.306—
w2-00074h / 8 / 960.55445135%0.274-0.031+0.305—
a4-r14h / 6 / 480.508259724%0.254-0.050+0.303—
w1-00554h / 6 / 960.566702822%0.236-0.063+0.299—
w2-00244h / 8 / 480.503125625%0.211-0.088+0.299—
w1-01274h / 6 / 960.566702822%0.236-0.062+0.298—
w3-01344h / 6 / 960.55557326%0.265-0.034+0.298—
w2-01004h / 6 / 960.566702822%0.236-0.062+0.298—
w2-00534h / 8 / 480.503337223%0.226-0.070+0.295—
w2-00674h / 6 / 480.50827655%0.239-0.052+0.291—
w2-00554h / 6 / 960.55557326%0.265-0.024+0.289—
w1-00114h / 8 / 480.503337223%0.226-0.056+0.281—
w3-01304h / 12 / 480.5146673%0.3000.019+0.281—
w1-00394h / 8 / 480.503337223%0.226-0.056+0.281—
w2-00934h / 8 / 960.554226234%0.260-0.019+0.279—
w3-00864h / 8 / 480.503337223%0.226-0.050+0.276—
w2-00564h / 6 / 480.505857022%0.223-0.052+0.275—
w1-001330m / 12 / 80.51017330%0.194-0.082+0.275—
w2-00474h / 12 / 960.55534839%0.256-0.015+0.271—
w3-00614h / 8 / 960.554108236%0.2890.018+0.271—
w3-008730m / 4 / 240.485210739%0.155-0.111+0.266—
w2-00684h / 8 / 480.503337223%0.226-0.037+0.263—
w1-00694h / 6 / 120.516304022%0.215-0.046+0.261—
w2-00654h / 6 / 480.50827638%0.162-0.098+0.260—
w3-00334h / 8 / 960.554108236%0.2890.029+0.259—
w1-00784h / 8 / 120.517671322%0.206-0.053+0.259—
w1-01144h / 10 / 480.5111250221%0.176-0.082+0.258—
w3-00284h / 8 / 960.55445135%0.2740.017+0.257—
w2-00104h / 8 / 960.5664854%0.092-0.165+0.257—
w2-01164h / 8 / 120.5211146121%0.183-0.071+0.255—
w1-00234h / 10 / 480.509119225%0.220-0.033+0.254—
w2-00234h / 8 / 960.56667323%0.144-0.110+0.253—
w3-011130m / 4 / 240.485210739%0.155-0.095+0.250—
w1-01164h / 12 / 120.519596722%0.174-0.076+0.250—
w2-009630m / 8 / 120.509112637%0.224-0.026+0.250—
w2-00624h / 10 / 480.509778521%0.168-0.081+0.249—
w3-00734h / 12 / 480.507110225%0.203-0.044+0.247—
w1-004415m / 6 / 240.51568529%0.071-0.174+0.246—
w1-00911h / 5 / 240.51419530%0.062-0.184+0.246—
w2-010315m / 12 / 80.510127528%0.084-0.162+0.246—
w2-01304h / 12 / 120.519213023%0.177-0.068+0.246—
w3-00224h / 8 / 480.503777121%0.190-0.055+0.245—
w3-005115m / 3 / 120.511220829%0.120-0.125+0.245—
w3-01364h / 12 / 960.55596637%0.2580.013+0.244—
w1-013130m / 4 / 240.485210739%0.155-0.088+0.243—
w3-002115m / 6 / 80.514140631%0.127-0.116+0.243—
w3-01054h / 8 / 480.503777121%0.190-0.051+0.241—
w1-01114h / 12 / 480.507299645%0.202-0.037+0.239—
w1-00254h / 12 / 480.5141184930%0.198-0.040+0.238—
w1-006530m / 6 / 120.506173135%0.179-0.059+0.238—
w3-00094h / 10 / 480.5111250221%0.176-0.062+0.238—
w1-00024h / 8 / 120.517268522%0.209-0.028+0.237—
w2-00984h / 12 / 480.507110225%0.203-0.035+0.237—
w3-008215m / 12 / 120.512182229%0.096-0.139+0.235—
w3-00954h / 12 / 120.519596722%0.174-0.061+0.235—
w1-00974h / 12 / 960.555212933%0.194-0.041+0.234—
w3-00754h / 12 / 120.519596722%0.174-0.060+0.234—
w1-00284h / 10 / 480.509324532%0.208-0.025+0.233—
w2-00884h / 10 / 120.5201054821%0.165-0.066+0.230—
w1-01034h / 8 / 120.5171462520%0.150-0.079+0.230—
w2-000630m / 8 / 120.509113453%0.2490.023+0.226—
w2-00734h / 10 / 480.5111250221%0.176-0.050+0.226—
w3-00154h / 10 / 960.566501621%0.171-0.054+0.225—
w3-00694h / 10 / 960.553106124%0.2400.015+0.225—
w3-007430m / 4 / 120.50279148%0.192-0.033+0.224—
w2-00304h / 10 / 120.517598821%0.125-0.098+0.223—
w3-01144h / 12 / 960.55534839%0.2560.035+0.221—
w2-00264h / 8 / 120.5171462520%0.150-0.070+0.220—
w2-00714h / 10 / 480.509324532%0.208-0.009+0.218—
w3-01164h / 12 / 960.56736839%0.2380.021+0.217—
w2-00914h / 12 / 480.507737530%0.181-0.035+0.215—
w3-01174h / 6 / 120.51930550%0.140-0.075+0.215—
w2-01014h / 8 / 120.5171462520%0.150-0.064+0.214—
w1-00044h / 6 / 120.516731320%0.132-0.083+0.214—
w3-00201h / 12 / 240.51532969%0.142-0.071+0.214—
w2-01294h / 8 / 960.55445135%0.2740.060+0.214—
w3-00654h / 10 / 120.5171394420%0.137-0.076+0.212—
w2-00044h / 12 / 960.55596637%0.2580.046+0.212—
a2-r34h / 1 / 240.510809730%0.179-0.033+0.212—
w3-00014h / 6 / 120.516731320%0.132-0.079+0.210—
w3-00304h / 6 / 480.5081558129%0.177-0.032+0.209—
w2-011230m / 12 / 120.50583148%0.159-0.049+0.208—
w2-012530m / 12 / 120.50583148%0.159-0.046+0.204—
w3-01284h / 10 / 960.55344335%0.2210.018+0.203—
w3-01064h / 12 / 120.5191371220%0.133-0.068+0.201—
w1-01301h / 12 / 240.51532969%0.142-0.058+0.201—
w3-00114h / 12 / 960.555212933%0.194-0.006+0.200—
w3-004130m / 6 / 120.50693446%0.143-0.056+0.199—
w1-00414h / 6 / 120.5161461220%0.135-0.062+0.197—
w3-008130m / 4 / 120.50279148%0.192-0.004+0.195—
w3-01134h / 6 / 120.516731320%0.132-0.063+0.195—
w3-01194h / 10 / 120.5171394420%0.137-0.058+0.195—
w2-010715m / 3 / 80.515172628%0.096-0.097+0.193—
w3-00524h / 10 / 120.5171394420%0.137-0.054+0.191—
w3-00604h / 8 / 240.509623920%0.107-0.081+0.188—
w2-007715m / 12 / 120.512182229%0.096-0.092+0.188—
w3-000430m / 8 / 240.487149228%0.067-0.120+0.187—
w2-003530m / 8 / 240.487149229%0.042-0.144+0.186—
w1-00634h / 8 / 240.5131709720%0.130-0.055+0.185—
w1-00991h / 5 / 480.51515248%0.081-0.101+0.182—
m14h / 6 / 120.516731320%0.132-0.049+0.181—
w3-00534h / 10 / 480.509119225%0.2200.040+0.181—
w1-01251h / 6 / 480.5147428%0.049-0.131+0.180—
w3-01294h / 8 / 240.5091343220%0.119-0.061+0.180—
w2-004430m / 6 / 240.489389238%0.087-0.092+0.179—
w3-004430m / 8 / 120.506164847%0.150-0.026+0.176—
w3-00364h / 6 / 240.509668429%0.153-0.022+0.175—
w3-001915m / 8 / 240.51390728%-0.002-0.176+0.174—
w2-009030m / 8 / 480.49419729%0.025-0.148+0.173—
w1-004530m / 6 / 240.489389238%0.087-0.085+0.172—
w3-00434h / 10 / 120.52018363%0.123-0.048+0.171—
w1-006030m / 8 / 240.487149228%0.067-0.104+0.170—
w3-00844h / 12 / 960.555212933%0.1940.024+0.170—
w3-006230m / 8 / 80.50659748%0.111-0.058+0.168—
w3-005830m / 8 / 120.506164847%0.150-0.017+0.167—
w2-00784h / 12 / 240.5061289220%0.082-0.083+0.166—
w1-01154h / 10 / 240.5131622841%0.147-0.018+0.165—
w1-005615m / 8 / 120.510302228%0.052-0.113+0.165—
w2-00084h / 12 / 960.56757759%0.128-0.034+0.162—
w1-001415m / 3 / 240.515213127%0.006-0.156+0.162—
w3-00031h / 6 / 480.5147428%0.049-0.113+0.162—
w1-011930m / 8 / 80.50655531%0.054-0.108+0.162—
w1-00384h / 10 / 240.5131622841%0.147-0.015+0.162—
w1-00834h / 8 / 120.52124462%0.114-0.046+0.160—
w2-00584h / 10 / 240.5051274628%0.110-0.050+0.160—
a14h / 4 / 60.507301645%0.144-0.014+0.158—
w1-005730m / 8 / 80.50655531%0.054-0.103+0.157—
w1-005230m / 8 / 240.487149229%0.042-0.115+0.157—
w3-00394h / 8 / 240.509217421%0.093-0.063+0.156—
w2-011430m / 12 / 80.50885138%0.020-0.135+0.155—
w1-010515m / 8 / 120.509276327%0.031-0.122+0.154—
w2-009415m / 3 / 120.511250634%0.019-0.125+0.144—
w3-013130m / 12 / 240.488364031%0.070-0.073+0.142—
w1-00774h / 10 / 240.5051274619%0.078-0.062+0.140—
w1-004030m / 8 / 480.49411721%-0.003-0.143+0.140—
w1-000630m / 4 / 120.502398344%0.108-0.031+0.139—
i30a30m / 6 / 120.506459043%0.079-0.059+0.139—
w2-004115m / 4 / 40.520358336%-0.031-0.169+0.138—
w2-00144h / 12 / 120.522207238%0.050-0.082+0.132—
w3-004930m / 4 / 120.502398344%0.108-0.023+0.132—
w2-008715m / 8 / 120.509578425%-0.030-0.161+0.131—
w1-011330m / 4 / 120.505255333%0.114-0.017+0.131—
w3-012130m / 12 / 80.50885138%0.020-0.107+0.128—
w2-01104h / 10 / 960.55344323%0.1860.059+0.128—
a2-r14h / 10 / 240.505576140%0.107-0.018+0.125—
a2-r24h / 10 / 240.505576140%0.107-0.017+0.124—
w1-013330m / 6 / 120.506459043%0.079-0.045+0.124—
w1-009515m / 6 / 80.518324127%-0.018-0.142+0.124—
w1-001030m / 8 / 120.506643743%0.085-0.039+0.124—
w1-010030m / 12 / 240.488311830%0.009-0.114+0.123—
w1-001930m / 6 / 120.506459043%0.079-0.043+0.123—
w2-008615m / 4 / 120.510693327%0.008-0.115+0.123—
w2-00954h / 8 / 120.521162233%0.065-0.054+0.118—
w1-006415m / 3 / 120.511494737%-0.018-0.135+0.117—
w3-007030m / 6 / 120.506459043%0.079-0.037+0.116—
w3-008915m / 3 / 120.511494737%-0.018-0.134+0.116—
w1-00624h / 10 / 240.505576119%0.057-0.059+0.116—
i15a15m / 6 / 120.510555536%-0.032-0.144+0.112—
w3-01354h / 8 / 120.52124462%0.1140.002+0.111—
w3-000515m / 6 / 40.5221525523%-0.039-0.150+0.111—
w1-000130m / 12 / 120.505449642%0.059-0.051+0.110—
w1-00294h / 12 / 240.506208340%0.083-0.027+0.110—
w1-00901h / 16 / 120.516712636%0.013-0.096+0.109—
w1-010130m / 12 / 80.50885138%0.020-0.086+0.106—
w3-003415m / 3 / 120.511494737%-0.018-0.123+0.105—
w1-010815m / 3 / 40.520376136%-0.042-0.146+0.105—
w2-00314h / 6 / 240.51314162%0.1160.012+0.105—
w1-00854h / 12 / 240.506208340%0.083-0.018+0.101—
w3-009230m / 8 / 480.48992635%-0.054-0.156+0.101—
w3-009315m / 6 / 120.510555536%-0.032-0.132+0.100—
w2-01211h / 16 / 120.516712636%0.013-0.087+0.100—
w3-001715m / 12 / 40.5191093423%-0.058-0.158+0.100—
w1-001215m / 3 / 40.5211788023%-0.056-0.155+0.100—
w3-003815m / 12 / 40.5191093423%-0.058-0.157+0.099—
w1-005015m / 3 / 80.515366536%-0.051-0.150+0.099—
w2-002815m / 3 / 240.513179834%-0.050-0.148+0.098—
w2-00664h / 12 / 240.506584818%0.001-0.097+0.098—
i15b15m / 4 / 80.515615026%-0.036-0.134+0.098—
w3-003215m / 12 / 40.515802820%-0.067-0.164+0.097—
w3-002615m / 6 / 240.515115848%0.015-0.081+0.096—
w1-001615m / 3 / 40.5211788023%-0.056-0.150+0.095—
w3-010415m / 12 / 80.514512223%-0.074-0.168+0.094—
w2-00704h / 12 / 240.506584818%0.001-0.091+0.093—
w1-00754h / 12 / 240.506584839%0.073-0.020+0.093—
w1-009315m / 6 / 40.517683936%-0.060-0.152+0.091—
w3-011530m / 12 / 480.49088941%-0.078-0.169+0.091—
w3-009915m / 3 / 240.513319325%-0.058-0.149+0.091—
w1-005815m / 8 / 80.516642023%-0.074-0.164+0.090—
w1-00321h / 6 / 120.506640736%-0.015-0.104+0.089—
w2-012030m / 6 / 240.4891409029%0.029-0.059+0.088—
w3-00504h / 12 / 240.506584839%0.073-0.015+0.088—
w2-010630m / 12 / 120.5111116842%0.055-0.032+0.087—
w2-008515m / 12 / 40.5191093423%-0.058-0.145+0.087—
w2-007615m / 6 / 40.517683936%-0.060-0.146+0.086—
w1-010215m / 6 / 80.518324127%-0.018-0.103+0.085—
w1-006815m / 6 / 80.518816923%-0.069-0.154+0.085—
w1-002730m / 6 / 240.4891409029%0.029-0.055+0.084—
w3-006315m / 4 / 120.5101081134%-0.069-0.153+0.084—
w1-004715m / 6 / 40.517421320%-0.097-0.181+0.084—
w3-009815m / 3 / 120.5111213236%-0.068-0.151+0.084—
w3-012615m / 8 / 120.510758536%-0.055-0.139+0.083—
w1-00354h / 12 / 240.506584839%0.073-0.010+0.083—
w1-011815m / 3 / 240.513179834%-0.050-0.132+0.083—
w2-001315m / 12 / 80.514512223%-0.074-0.156+0.082—
w3-00164h / 10 / 240.505201919%-0.014-0.095+0.081—
w3-01321h / 6 / 120.506640736%-0.015-0.094+0.080—
w1-013215m / 3 / 120.5111213236%-0.068-0.147+0.080—
w3-010815m / 4 / 120.5101081134%-0.069-0.148+0.079—
w2-00791h / 8 / 120.506523636%-0.028-0.105+0.077—
w3-009415m / 6 / 120.510854035%-0.067-0.144+0.077—
w3-000715m / 6 / 40.517144135%-0.085-0.161+0.076—
w2-011815m / 8 / 240.509200634%-0.046-0.122+0.076—
a3r31h / 6 / 120.506640736%-0.015-0.090+0.075—
w1-005915m / 8 / 120.510758524%-0.062-0.137+0.075—
w3-00251h / 5 / 240.511666429%-0.044-0.118+0.074—
w3-008015m / 8 / 240.509200636%-0.042-0.115+0.073—
w3-007615m / 4 / 240.515922834%-0.072-0.145+0.073—
w1-000930m / 8 / 240.4921521435%-0.056-0.129+0.073—
w1-00821h / 8 / 120.506523636%-0.028-0.100+0.073—
w1-006630m / 8 / 80.5091356942%0.039-0.032+0.071—
w1-009815m / 3 / 240.5151308334%-0.080-0.151+0.071—
w2-005230m / 6 / 240.4891409029%0.029-0.042+0.071—
w3-004030m / 8 / 240.4921521435%-0.056-0.126+0.070—
w2-006130m / 6 / 80.5071540342%0.041-0.028+0.069—
w2-005415m / 8 / 40.5163090123%-0.087-0.156+0.068—
w2-003315m / 8 / 40.5163090123%-0.087-0.156+0.068—
w3-013330m / 6 / 80.5071540342%0.041-0.027+0.068—
w3-005615m / 3 / 40.5202616422%-0.085-0.153+0.068—
w1-002015m / 3 / 240.513179834%-0.050-0.117+0.068—
w1-011015m / 12 / 40.5153728220%-0.082-0.150+0.068—
w2-00691h / 8 / 120.506523636%-0.028-0.094+0.066—
w2-000515m / 12 / 40.515802820%-0.067-0.133+0.066—
w1-012215m / 8 / 40.516507422%-0.100-0.164+0.064—
w2-009215m / 4 / 240.513569135%-0.073-0.135+0.062—
w2-004315m / 6 / 240.510289726%-0.050-0.113+0.062—
w3-007930m / 6 / 480.48651343%-0.103-0.165+0.062—
w2-006315m / 12 / 40.515400826%-0.055-0.115+0.060—
w2-005115m / 6 / 80.5142642834%-0.097-0.157+0.060—
w3-002715m / 12 / 80.514512223%-0.074-0.134+0.060—
w1-00371h / 8 / 120.5062373835%-0.043-0.102+0.059—
w2-004915m / 12 / 40.5153728220%-0.082-0.141+0.059—
w2-01151h / 12 / 120.514943234%-0.035-0.093+0.059—
w2-002115m / 6 / 240.510667134%-0.083-0.141+0.058—
w1-00921h / 8 / 120.5062373835%-0.043-0.099+0.057—
w1-00701h / 6 / 120.5112003434%-0.037-0.093+0.056—
w1-009630m / 6 / 480.486249928%-0.081-0.137+0.056—
w1-00311h / 12 / 120.508497135%-0.043-0.098+0.055—
w1-00461h / 5 / 240.511666435%-0.038-0.093+0.055—
w2-000915m / 6 / 80.5142642834%-0.097-0.152+0.055—
w3-011830m / 4 / 120.5052019440%0.025-0.030+0.055—
w1-001730m / 12 / 80.5101077242%0.025-0.030+0.055—
w3-00671h / 5 / 240.511666435%-0.038-0.093+0.054—
w2-000130m / 4 / 120.5052019440%0.025-0.030+0.054—
w1-008015m / 4 / 80.5152482734%-0.098-0.151+0.054—
w2-010230m / 12 / 80.5101077242%0.025-0.029+0.053—
w2-012730m / 4 / 120.5052019440%0.025-0.029+0.053—
w3-00721h / 8 / 120.5111499935%-0.044-0.097+0.053—
w3-011215m / 4 / 240.513569135%-0.073-0.125+0.053—
w1-00711h / 5 / 240.511666435%-0.038-0.091+0.053—
w2-000215m / 6 / 40.5173491622%-0.099-0.151+0.052—
w2-00831h / 8 / 120.5111499935%-0.044-0.095+0.051—
w3-013930m / 8 / 80.5061455240%0.014-0.037+0.051—
w2-00221h / 8 / 120.5062373835%-0.043-0.093+0.050—
w1-007630m / 12 / 480.4953928%-0.006-0.056+0.050—
w3-00591h / 16 / 120.5062452534%-0.051-0.101+0.050—
w1-005315m / 4 / 80.5152482734%-0.098-0.146+0.048—
w2-008130m / 8 / 480.489396834%-0.088-0.136+0.048—
a3r21h / 6 / 120.5062555335%-0.055-0.103+0.048—
w2-00421h / 16 / 240.512315934%-0.060-0.108+0.048—
w3-000830m / 4 / 120.5021610440%0.018-0.030+0.048—
w3-00641h / 16 / 120.5062452534%-0.051-0.098+0.047—
w2-01041h / 16 / 120.5062452534%-0.051-0.097+0.046—
w3-001015m / 8 / 80.5122146134%-0.101-0.147+0.046—
w1-011215m / 8 / 80.5122146134%-0.101-0.147+0.045—
w2-003930m / 4 / 480.488130643%-0.081-0.126+0.045—
w1-00421h / 12 / 120.508497135%-0.043-0.087+0.044—
w2-00451h / 6 / 120.5062555335%-0.055-0.099+0.044—
w3-005530m / 4 / 80.5001605339%0.009-0.034+0.044—
w2-008230m / 12 / 240.4881392134%-0.081-0.125+0.044—
w2-00571h / 12 / 120.508497135%-0.043-0.086+0.043—
w3-004230m / 6 / 80.5041585940%0.005-0.038+0.043—
a3r11h / 6 / 120.5062555335%-0.055-0.097+0.043—
w1-002130m / 8 / 480.489396834%-0.088-0.130+0.042—
w1-00811h / 16 / 120.506530435%-0.067-0.108+0.041—
w1-01061h / 12 / 120.5082385535%-0.052-0.093+0.041—
w1-007415m / 8 / 80.5122146134%-0.103-0.143+0.039—
w3-00131h / 6 / 120.5062555335%-0.055-0.094+0.039—
w3-010130m / 12 / 480.490875434%-0.091-0.129+0.038—
w3-00831h / 12 / 240.508287922%-0.101-0.139+0.038—
w2-001930m / 12 / 480.490875434%-0.091-0.129+0.038—
w1-007315m / 3 / 240.5133730433%-0.115-0.151+0.037—
w3-00481h / 8 / 240.510679035%-0.062-0.099+0.037—
w3-00971h / 5 / 240.5112718934%-0.065-0.101+0.036—
w2-000315m / 12 / 80.5103020034%-0.117-0.152+0.035—
w3-001830m / 6 / 80.50490733%-0.106-0.141+0.035—
w3-005715m / 12 / 80.510446034%-0.110-0.143+0.034—
w3-010730m / 8 / 480.489396834%-0.088-0.120+0.033—
w2-01241h / 5 / 120.5088201334%-0.066-0.098+0.032—
w3-002930m / 12 / 80.5081911839%0.002-0.030+0.032—
w3-00371h / 5 / 120.5088201334%-0.066-0.097+0.031—
w2-01231h / 16 / 120.5068416834%-0.068-0.099+0.031—
w2-00341h / 5 / 240.5112718934%-0.065-0.096+0.031—
w1-00841h / 8 / 120.5068109534%-0.068-0.098+0.030—
w3-009015m / 12 / 80.510446034%-0.110-0.140+0.030—
w1-01041h / 5 / 120.5088201334%-0.066-0.096+0.030—
w3-010030m / 4 / 480.4911002032%-0.091-0.121+0.030—
w2-00971h / 5 / 480.51313726333%-0.067-0.097+0.030—
w3-00351h / 12 / 120.5088340934%-0.069-0.098+0.029—
w1-01291h / 5 / 480.5153255134%-0.059-0.088+0.029—
w2-00171h / 5 / 480.51313726333%-0.067-0.096+0.029—
w3-01251h / 5 / 480.51313726333%-0.067-0.096+0.028—
w2-00151h / 6 / 120.5068211333%-0.070-0.098+0.028—
w3-00711h / 12 / 120.5088340934%-0.069-0.097+0.028—
w2-00841h / 16 / 120.5068416834%-0.068-0.095+0.027—
w1-012430m / 12 / 80.5081911839%0.002-0.023+0.025—
w3-01021h / 8 / 480.512905455%-0.014-0.039+0.025—
w2-01051h / 6 / 240.5112546534%-0.071-0.094+0.023—
w2-00381h / 5 / 480.5135062034%-0.072-0.095+0.022—
w2-00401h / 12 / 480.51113914033%-0.075-0.097+0.022—
w1-00861h / 12 / 480.51113914033%-0.075-0.097+0.022—
w1-01201h / 8 / 480.51213847933%-0.073-0.095+0.021—
w1-01091h / 5 / 480.5135069643%-0.022-0.043+0.021—
w2-01091h / 8 / 480.51213847933%-0.073-0.095+0.021—
w1-00871h / 8 / 240.515971434%-0.082-0.102+0.020—
w1-00941h / 16 / 480.51113954333%-0.077-0.096+0.019—
w2-01131h / 8 / 480.512905455%-0.014-0.033+0.019—
w3-00241h / 8 / 480.5124913934%-0.080-0.098+0.018—
w1-01211h / 16 / 480.51113954333%-0.077-0.094+0.017—
w2-00891h / 16 / 240.51210599433%-0.078-0.094+0.017—
w3-01221h / 8 / 480.5124913934%-0.080-0.096+0.016—
w2-00801h / 8 / 480.512905455%-0.014-0.030+0.016—
w3-01371h / 8 / 480.512905455%-0.014-0.029+0.015—
w1-00071h / 8 / 240.5102808034%-0.084-0.099+0.015—
w2-00991h / 5 / 240.51110093033%-0.081-0.095+0.013—
w1-00791h / 8 / 240.5102818343%-0.052-0.066+0.013—
w1-00341h / 12 / 480.5115062234%-0.085-0.097+0.013—
w1-00331h / 6 / 480.511946843%-0.053-0.063+0.011—
w2-00181h / 8 / 240.5102818343%-0.052-0.062+0.010—
w3-00851h / 6 / 240.5119727533%-0.088-0.098+0.009—
w3-00311h / 6 / 240.5119763042%-0.056-0.065+0.009—
w3-01201h / 16 / 240.5123168743%-0.054-0.062+0.009—
w1-01231h / 16 / 240.5123170755%-0.025-0.034+0.008—
w3-00681h / 6 / 240.5119727533%-0.088-0.095+0.006—
w2-00461h / 12 / 480.511912853%-0.042-0.045+0.004—
w1-007230m / 4 / 480.4881176240%-0.079-0.082+0.003—
w3-00881h / 16 / 240.51600%0.0000.000+0.000—
w3-00451h / 16 / 240.51600%0.0000.000+0.000—
w2-01171h / 8 / 480.51200%0.0000.000+0.000—
w2-00251h / 12 / 480.51200%0.0000.000+0.000—
w3-00781h / 8 / 480.51200%0.0000.000+0.000—
w3-01031h / 16 / 480.51100%0.0000.000+0.000—
w2-00111h / 5 / 480.51500%0.0000.000+0.000—
w1-00081h / 5 / 480.51500%0.0000.000+0.000—
w2-00741h / 12 / 480.511912853%-0.042-0.040-0.002—
w1-001530m / 6 / 480.4861358443%-0.077-0.072-0.006—
w1-012630m / 8 / 480.4891559333%-0.134-0.125-0.009—
w1-005130m / 8 / 480.4891739537%-0.056-0.042-0.014—
w2-00751h / 16 / 480.511872053%-0.056-0.040-0.016—
w1-00671h / 12 / 480.511912853%-0.042-0.025-0.017—
w1-008930m / 8 / 480.4941879732%-0.157-0.137-0.020—
w2-01221h / 16 / 480.511872053%-0.056-0.035-0.022—
w3-012330m / 6 / 480.4922299237%-0.060-0.035-0.026—
w1-012830m / 6 / 480.4922299237%-0.060-0.033-0.027—
w1-001830m / 12 / 480.4951478032%-0.153-0.124-0.029—
w1-003630m / 6 / 480.4922299237%-0.060-0.031-0.029—
w3-012430m / 4 / 480.4912422736%-0.064-0.032-0.032—

Formations the agents studied — faded part is what happened next

Group board — agents comparing notes

w3-0139 · 2026-10-26 17:04:15
Best trading geometry: long stop 2.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 48 -> 14552 trades, win 40%, edge +0.051 vs random
w3-0140 · 2026-10-26 17:04:32
Round start: 1h window=12 horizon=24 model=rf q=0.6
w2-0127 · 2026-10-26 17:05:24
Best trading geometry: long stop 2.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 48 -> 20194 trades, win 40%, edge +0.053 vs random
w2-0128 · 2026-10-26 17:05:41
Round start: 15m window=4 horizon=12 model=histgb q=0.65
w2-0128 · 2026-10-26 17:07:09
Mind trained: AUC train 0.558 / future 0.510 on 436889 formations
w1-0131 · 2026-10-26 17:07:17
Best trading geometry: long stop 1.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 24 -> 2107 trades, win 39%, edge +0.243 vs random
w1-0132 · 2026-10-26 17:07:34
Round start: 15m window=3 horizon=12 model=rf q=0.55
w2-0128 · 2026-10-26 17:08:27
Best trading geometry: long stop 1.0 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 24 -> 1393 trades, win 31%, edge +0.343 vs random
w2-0129 · 2026-10-26 17:08:44
Round start: 4h window=8 horizon=96 model=histgb q=0.65
w3-0140 · 2026-10-26 17:09:10
Mind trained: AUC train 0.631 / future 0.515 on 669218 formations
w1-0132 · 2026-10-26 17:09:38
Mind trained: AUC train 0.574 / future 0.511 on 436889 formations
w2-0129 · 2026-10-26 17:09:44
Mind trained: AUC train 0.701 / future 0.554 on 158216 formations
w3-0140 · 2026-10-26 17:11:35
Best trading geometry: short stop 2.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 24 -> 2 trades, win 100%, edge +0.768 vs random
w3-0141 · 2026-10-26 17:11:52
Round start: 1h window=5 horizon=12 model=histgb q=0.55
w2-0129 · 2026-10-26 17:11:52
Best trading geometry: long stop 1.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 48 -> 451 trades, win 35%, edge +0.214 vs random
w2-0130 · 2026-10-26 17:12:08
Round start: 4h window=12 horizon=12 model=histgb q=0.65
w2-0130 · 2026-10-26 17:13:01
Mind trained: AUC train 0.735 / future 0.519 on 150755 formations
w1-0132 · 2026-10-26 17:13:20
Best trading geometry: short stop 1.0 ATR, target 2.0 ATR, hold 24 -> 12132 trades, win 36%, edge +0.080 vs random
w1-0133 · 2026-10-26 17:13:36
Round start: 30m window=6 horizon=12 model=histgb q=0.6
w2-0130 · 2026-10-26 17:14:04
Best trading geometry: long stop 1.0 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 48 -> 2130 trades, win 23%, edge +0.246 vs random
w3-0141 · 2026-10-26 17:14:06
Mind trained: AUC train 0.599 / future 0.508 on 648592 formations
w2-0131 · 2026-10-26 17:14:21
Round start: 15m window=12 horizon=12 model=histgb q=0.65
w1-0133 · 2026-10-26 17:15:24
Mind trained: AUC train 0.576 / future 0.506 on 436819 formations
w2-0131 · 2026-10-26 17:17:14
Mind trained: AUC train 0.567 / future 0.512 on 436889 formations
w1-0133 · 2026-10-26 17:18:04
Best trading geometry: long stop 2.5 ATR, target 6.0 ATR, hold 48 -> 4590 trades, win 43%, edge +0.124 vs random

Learners — always running (these are the bots, not chat agents)

learn-w1 — online

268s | best {"name": "w1-0133", "split": "test", "side": "long", "stop": 2.5, "tp": 6.0, "hold": 48, "trades": 4590, "win": 0.434, "rule": 0.0794, "ctrl": -0.0447, "edge": 0.1241}

learn-w2 — online

2026-10-26T17:14:20: [17:14:20] round 131 {'tf': '15m', 'w': 12, 'h': 12, 'model': 'histgb', 'q': 0.65} -> w2-0131

learn-w3 — online

2026-10-26T17:11:51: [17:11:51] round 141 {'tf': '1h', 'w': 5, 'h': 12, 'model': 'histgb', 'q': 0.55} -> w3-0141

Chat agents used today (GPT debate)

No agent is running this second.

Rule results so far

rulesplittftradeswinrule REDGE
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_6_12_train_traintrain4h396934%+0.343+0.357
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_4_48_train_traintrain4h396927%+0.289+0.320
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_4_12_train_traintrain4h396934%+0.284+0.304
vol2_absorb_4h_s1.0_p6.0_h48_testtest4h45520%+0.234+0.303
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_6_48_train_traintrain4h396921%+0.269+0.301
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_4_24_train_traintrain4h396929%+0.281+0.298
volatility_vol_long_1.0_6_48_train_traintrain4h1063321%+0.289+0.296
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_6_24_train_traintrain4h396926%+0.275+0.296
volatility_vol_long_1.5_6_48_train_traintrain4h1063330%+0.271+0.272
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_3_48_train_traintrain4h396931%+0.214+0.269
volatility_vol_long_2.0_6_48_train_traintrain4h1063338%+0.263+0.268
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_3_24_train_traintrain4h396932%+0.223+0.268
volatility_squeeze_break_1.0_3_12_train_traintrain4h396935%+0.218+0.261
volatility_vol_long_1.0_6_24_train_traintrain4h1063328%+0.247+0.244

EDGE = what the rule makes per trade minus what random entries make, in units of the risk taken. Above zero means the pattern pays; near zero means it is noise.